In order to determine if films with Cage are getting worse, comparisons of his movies over time will be necessary. A lot of this has already been touched on in previous sections, but it will be done with a bit more rigour here. There are several ways of judging a movie, and using only one of them might not give the most reliable results. So to properly judge film performance over time, a way of comparing all of them at once has been devised. This is called The Cage Coefficient.
The Cage Coefficient is a weighted average of various key performance indicators after they have been normalised in order to show how that indicator has performed over time relative to itself. The indicators and their respective weights are:
- Normalised Rotten Tomatoes Rating (0.175 Weighting)
- Normalised IMDB Rating (0.175 Weighting)
- Normalised Total IMDB Ratings (0.325 Weighting)
- Normalised Film Profit (0.325 Weighting)
This will be used to test two hypotheses:
- Have Nicolas Cage Movies been getting worse since he first started acting?
- Have Nicolas Cage Movies been getting worse since his initial breakthrough in the mid 1990’s?
First Hypothesis: Nicolas Cage’s movies have been getting worse since the beginning of his careerFor the first case, where every movie Cage has been in is included the equation is as follows:
Since is not greater than for a two sided T-Test, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. We can therefore conclude that at the 95% level of significance there is insufficient evidence to suggest that Nicolas Cage’s movies have been getting either better or worse since the beginning of his career. Surprised?
Second Hypothesis: Nicolas Cage’s movies have been getting worse since 1995For the second case, where only movies after Leaving Las Vegas (his initial breakthrough) are included the equation for the Cage Coefficient is as follows:
Since is less than for a one sided T-Test the null hypothesis can be rejected. We can then conclude that at the 95% level of significance there is sufficient evidence that the Cage Coefficient has been decreasing since his initial breakthrough in the mid 1990’s with Leaving Las Vegas. If the Cage Coefficient is an accurate representation of the quality of a movie then it would seem that Nicolas Cage movies have been getting worse in more recent years.
To a lot of people this probably comes as no surprise, but I am actually pretty surprised to find this result. I know Cage has had his ups and downs but I really wasn’t expecting there to be a statistically significant downward trend. The more you know!
The next post is going to conclude this short series and summarise what we’ve learnt about Nicolas Cage. There might even be a few bold predictions about where he might go in future years too!